The idea of money, the kind you can carry around in your wallet, has served civilization well. It makes exchange a lot easier than barter for most transactions and seems to be coupled with the idea of "stored value". After all if you can by frugality save money you are retaining something of value since you can use the unspent money to buy things you want or need at a later time. Thus the idea of "money" as stored value seems to be intrinsic to its existence. In the current economic universe, what many have called a "race to the bottom" interest rates have gotten so low that they bump up against the so called zero bound problem. What is the zero bound? On line resources like Investopedia suggests the following definition. The zero bound problem is a limit on monetary policy that occurs when a central bank lowers interest rates to zero and effectively goes to negative rates when the set rate is less than the rate of inflation. A simple thought experiment demonstrates the problem. If inflation is 2% and interest rates are say 1% then the effective interest rate is -1%. That is you invest say a thousand dollars at 1% for a year and get $1,010 back But with 2% inflation your purchasing power is only $989.80 You have just hit the zero bound limit. It is clear that this will limit the actions of a central bank in terms of its choices in stimulating a moribund economy. This has been called a liquidity trap. The lack of liquidity is caused by hoarding cash which is rational if putting it to work gives you back less purchasing power than if you just held onto the cash. Japan discovered this in the 90's and more recently the US Fed has been drifting toward it too. Paul Krugman has argued that the United States is in a liquidity trap now since the monetary base has tripled between 2008 and 2011 and this failed to produce any real effect on US domestic prices or on dollar denominated commodities. More recently Mario Draghi president of the European Central Bank pushed interests rates below zero to a minus 0.2% in Sept of 2014. Countries like Denmark that peg their currency to the Euro were forced deeper in negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are punitive to savers since you get less back than you put in. By the end of the first quarter 2015 about a quarter of all debt issued by Eurozone governments had negative yields. The spiral of competitive devaluations and ever lower rates seems to spread like the flu virus and most of the worlds economies are acting as if a currency war is in progress. Even China has been lowering interest rates recently. It is unclear that lowering interest rates below zero for a significant period of time will actually stimulate a credit based economy since the incentive is to hold onto cash rather than pay someone to hold it for you. It could bring about a monetary and fiscal destruction of the banking system and return us all to a barter economy. Facing retirement in a sub zero interest world is challenging to say the least. I think I need to get to work on my sandwich board, Will Operate for Food.
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